July 2025

On August 1, 2025 mortgage lenders lowered rates by a quarter point to approximately 6.5% in spite of the Fed saying last month they were not going to cut interest rates. This demonstrates that interest rates and mortgage rates move independently of each other. It is now a foregone conclusion that the Fed will lower interest rates in September. When interest rates get down to 6% we expect to see the market recover in favor of home sellers and buyers. Buyers will benefit in the short term but as bidding wars become more common, the benefit will shift to the sellers. This appears to be an inflection point which means if you're a buyer, hurry up and buy that house before all the other buyers find out that interest rates have dropped. If buyers wait, they're likely to find themselves in bidding wars again with home sellers calling the shots. BUYERS - THIS IS THE BEST BUYING OPPORTUNITY you'll have this year. SELLERS - if you've been waiting to sell, now is the time to have that conversation around what does the selling process look like based on your timeline to move.

Across the nine-county region, home sales remained slow in June, quashing the real estate industry’s hopes that 2025 might finally be the year the market recovers from a three-year slump.

Sellers, getting desperate, are starting to lower their prices. In Contra Costa and Alameda counties, one in every three homes for sale saw a price drop in June. In San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, it was one in every two homes, according to Redfin data.

“If you’re a seller and think the number your neighbor got in 2022 is what you’re going to get today, you’ll be disappointed,” said Victoria Tseng, a real estate agent based in Berkeley.

“Sellers are looking at where the market was a few years ago, and agents are warning them that the market isn’t there,” said Jill Toler, a San Jose-based agent. “If we’re not getting offers, we need to put the home at a different price.”

That could mean buyers have more negotiating power right now - that is, if they’re willing to swallow the still–high prices.